What is India-Pakistan issue ?

Before we begin, I would like to clarify that the following content is my personal opinion and readers have every right to differ from it.

Background

There is a new trend in social media these days. People often sit in cosy rooms with the facebook app on their smartphone and display their sense of nationalism and patriotism. Some argue with people from across the border (Pakistan), some argue with their own country citizens. Some link religions with nationalism and patriotism. Many even get abused/harassed in the process. I would like to quote Mr. Sydney J. Harris, 
"The difference between patriotism and nationalism is that the patriot is proud of his country for what it does, and the nationalist is proud of his country no matter what it does; the first attitude creates a feeling of responsibility,but the second a feeling of blind arrogance that leads to war"

There is another good quote, "Nationalism teaches you to take pride in things you haven't done and hate people you've never met"

Before we discuss India Pakistan issue, we need to understand the background of Pakistan. If you do not know how and why the idea of Pakistan came up during our freedom struggle, please go through the following link:
https://ashishbatler.blogspot.in/2018/02/why-did-partition-happen.html?m=1

Introduction

Our ex-President Mr. Pranab Mukherjee had said, "I can change my friends, but not my neighbours".

People to people communication and interaction plays a big role in relationship between two countries. In 2004, India Pakistan cricket matches were played in Pakistan and lot of spectators had gone from India to Pakistan. The Indians were welcomed everywhere by Pakistan public and suddenly there was a good image of Pakistan in India. Similarly in 1999, Cricket Team India had lost a Test match in Chennai against Pakistan but Indian crowd gave Pakistani team a standing ovation. There are some bad examples too. Some players from Pakistan hockey team, after winning against India in Odisha recently, showed some bad gestures to the crowd.

The cultural exchanges have resulted in Pakistani actors like Mahira Khan working in Bollywood, Indian actors like Om Puri working in Pakistani theatres etc. Thus these ambassadors play a big role in shaping the images of their home nation.

Structure of Pakistan

Let us first understand the structure of Pakistan. Pakistan's capital is Islamabad. The Headquarter of Armed Forces is in Rawalpindi. The biggest provincial area in Pakistan is Balochistan. The biggest town is Karachi. FATA or the Tribal areas is where the maximum terrorist activities and insurgency is being carried out in Pakistan. Then there is North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

Pakistan also controls two areas which are disputed with India. One area is Gilgit area or the Northern area, which is the northern area of Jammu and Kashmir. The other is Azad Kashmir as per Pakistan's nomenclature. We (India) call Gilgit and Azad Kashmir area combined as POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) which is under Pakistan's control. Ironically, Azad Kashmir, which literally means Independent Kashmir, is not independent. It has a puppet govt. controlled from Islamabad.

Kashmir Dispute

In 1947, Kashmir under Maharaja Hari Singh did not join either India or Pakistan. Kashmir had a Hindu ruler and a Muslim majority population. Maharaja Hari Singh wanted to delay it so that Kashmir could remain independent, and didn't want to join either India or Pakistan. But then after Independence in 1948, Kashmir was attacked by Kabailis (Kabilas or Tribals) from Pakistan side. Maharaja Hari Singh asked India for help. In return, Indian government asked him to sign an "Instrument of Accession" which gave India governing rights over few subjects like Kashmir's external affairs etc.

India helped Kashmir to push back the Pakistan forces and thus Kashmir was integrated into India. But since the "Instrument of Accession" had handed over only few subjects to Indian goverment, Kashmir got a special status and a separate constitution, and thus a greater autonomy.
There was a ceasefire agreement and Indian government went to the UN (United Nations) in hope of justice. UN ordered a plebiscite (direct voting by people of Kashmir) to decide the matter, but for Plebiscite to happen both the countries had to withdraw their troops. Since then, Pakistan has not withdrawn their troops till date and thus the Plebiscite never happened and POK is under Pakistan's control till date.
Pakistan had captured Shaksham Valley (5000 square km) too which they gifted to China in 1963 without having any locus standi.

Kashmir - What the people want ?

There is a third perspective put forward by some experts which believe that people of Kashmir in 1947 wanted independence from both India and Pakistan for different reasons. We will keep this discussion for some other day, but till then interested readers can go through the following link :

http://www.frontline.in/the-nation/roots-of-the-kashmir-dispute/article8580539.ece

Siachen Dispute

Siachen glacier is on the eastern side of Jammu and Kashmir. We have had four wars with Pakistan till date, 1948 war on Kashmir, 1965 war on Rann of Kutch issue, 1971 war on East Pakistan/Bangladesh issue, 1999 war on Kargil. After Karachi agreement and Shimla agreement in 1948 and 1971, a delineation was done on the ground to mark the territory of India and Pakistan. In Siachen, this delineation was done only till point NJ9842. They thought that there is no life beyond this point and so they mentioned that the boundary beyond NJ9842 will be "hence to the North". This is where the problem happened. Both India and Pakistan have a different version of their own. India's perspective seems more logical but the ambiguity has been created.

In later 1970s, Pakistan had started inviting people from world for expeditions in Siachen. In 1984, Indian forces got to know that Pakistan has ordered some gears used in places like Arctic. But the logical conclusion was that Pakistan forces were trying to reach Siachen. So India reached before them and captured the upper portion of Siachen under Operation Meghdoot. Till today, the upper reaches of the glacier is controlled by us and the lower belt by Pakistan. Thus we have a strategic advantage.

Now there has been debates between different experts whether protecting Siachen is really worth it or not. Some expert had quoted that Siachen is a comb over which two bald men are fighting. Some say that the merit is none but it is only a war of psychology.

In 2012, 129 Pakistan soldiers had been buried in Avalanche in Gayatri Sector in Siachen. In February 2016, 10 Indian soldiers were buried under Avalanche. The climate is very harsh. Till date, thousands of soldiers from both the sides have died due to climatic conditions. It is not the bullets which are hurting but the climate.

Sir Creek Dispute

India and Pakistan fought 1965 war over Rann of Kutch. Pakistan claimed  this territory but a 3-member tribunal in 1968 held that 90% of India's control over Rann of Kutch is correct and only 10% was awarded to Pakistan. Sir Creek is a 96 km long estuary. Logically it should be divided as per Thalwig principal which states that if a river forms an international river then the mid-point of river becomes the border. Pakistan argues that this principal is applicable only to navigable rivers. They argue that the Rann of Kutch was earlier a part of Sindh, and thus it belongs to them. The tribunal delineated this area after the war but stopped at a point called "western terminus". Thus the dispute arose over the ambiguity which is similar to what happened at NJ9842 in Siachen.
Sir Creek does not have any strategic advantages but it has huge economic advantage. A lot of oil and natural gas is buried under it and both the countries are energy deficient. The delineation will also affect our EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Due to lack of proper delineation, fishermen from both the sides mistakenly enter into other area and get arrested for years.

Indus Water Treaty

We have 6 rivers in Indus river system : Sutluj, Beas, Ravi, Chenab, Jhelum, Indus. Sutluj and Indus originate in China. Rest 4 rivers originate in India. In 1960, Nehru and Ayub Khan had signed this treaty which was backed by World Bank. Three westernmost rivers i.e. Chenab, Jhelum, Indus were given to Pakistan. India was allowed to use these 3 rivers for irrigation, transport and power generation purposes. We must understand that Pakistan is completely dependent upon these rivers. So they are always worried if Indian hampers the flow into Pakistan. 

Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project dispute

Kishanganga is a tributary of Jhelum, known as Neelam in Pakistan. In 2009, India planned a 330 MW Power project. For that India needed to divert the water through a 23 km long tunnel. Pakistan raised objection to it and went to Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) which ruled in India's favour but asked India to maintain a certain a amount of water in this channel so that Pakistan can also build a power project if they want to.

Tulbul/Wullur Project dispute

During lean winter seasons, water level dips down, especially between Wullur lake and Baramulla valley, which is not sufficient for ships to navigate. So the idea was to transfer some amount of water to maintain navigation and thus a barrage was to be constructed in Jammu and Kashmir on the Jhelum just below the Wullur  lake. The project was started in 1984. Pakistan objected in 1987 and we stopped it. Then it was again revived after 2010 in Manmohan Singh's era but terrorists have been interfering since then and the project is stuck.

Most Favoured Nation (MFN)

MFN status is given to a country from another country which means that the goods for import will not be discriminated. For e.g, If India gives MFN status to Pakistan, and Pakistan wants to export Rice to India, then India will not discriminate Pakistan to buy Rice from some other country. Indian gave Pakistan MFN status in 1968. Pakistan has not given us MFN status till date. We must understand that India has a huge Industrial base compared to Pakistan and a much bigger economy. Thus it is much easier for India. Pakistan fears that if they give India the MFN status, Indians will start dominating their market since India is much better placed  in agriculture and textiles. Although in recent times, Pakistan has brought reforms in their policy Slowly, they have moved to Negative list of 1900 items. It means that only 1900 items cannot be traded with India, rest all can be traded with India. This is a welcome step. India-Pakistan bilateral trade has huge potential. Currently there is a formal trade of 3 billion dollars and an Informal trade of 10 billion dollars.

Arms Race

Former Pakistan PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had said, "If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass, leaves and even go hungry, but we will get one of our own. We have no alternative". It means that they will make a nuclear bomb if India makes a nuclear bomb even if they have to stay hungry to save money. Defence expenditure in both countries is increasing every year. But Pakistan should understand that India has another hostile neighbour in China. So our arms and nuclear development is for peaceful, defence and energy purposes. Pakistan gets the technology from China. This race threatens the stability in this region.

Terrorism

16 December, 2015, a lot of students were killed by Taliban in Army Public School in Peshawar. India has been affected by terrorism but that has been exported to us by Pakistan etc. But that same terrorism is now also hurting Pakistan. The wars of 1948, 1965, 1971 perhaps made them realise that they can't win through traditional battles so State sponsored terrorist activities started. We must understand that these Taliban insurgents were created by USA and Pakistan. After USSR left Pakistan, these Taliban insurgents became jobless. Then they were used for terrorist activities. Hillary Clinton once said, "Its like that old story - you can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them to bite only your neighbours. Eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has kept them in the backyard". This is what has happened with Pakistan. Terrorism is now also hurting them. There are frequent attacks in Pakistan. More than 50,000 Pakistanis have dies in last 10-15 years in home grown terrorism. Now Pakistan is also the victim and they have only themselves to blame.

Drug Trafficking

There are two most important channels in our neighbourhood. Golden crescent (Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan) and Golden Triangle (Myanmar, Thailand, Laos). Afghanistan is biggest producer of illegal opium and Pakistan exports it to our side in India. The network is very strong because people from India are also involved in this. From Pakistan, someone throws a courier which is received on Indian side. A bollywood movie "Udta Punjab" was made on this menace.

The issue of Balochistan

Balochistan was a princely state in 1948, ruled by Kalat. Pakistan had annexed it to integrate it in Pakistan. Since then the struggle is going on. Akbar Bugati, the biggest leader of Balochistan was killed by Pakistan Armed Forces during the time of Parvez Musharraf. Infact, Pakistan used aircrafts on its own people. We must understand that in Pakistan, Punjab is the richest and most dominating province. Balochistan has only 2% representation in Army. Balochistan is hugely rich in minerals and natural gas. Baloch people accuse Pakistan of exploitation, that Pakistan has been taking all assets and using in Punjab. Balochistan Liberation Army was formed to fight against Pakistan. Activists in Balochistan are targeted. Thousands have disappeared, killed, kidnapped. Mass graves have been found in Balochistan. It is Pakistan's largest but least developed province. Pakistan claims that Gwadar port and CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) will help in development. But they do not understand that CPEC will expose the entire Pakistan to China, and more goods from China will enter into Pakistan's market which will destroy their local industries which are in no competition to Chinese industries. Only China will benefit from this. Pakistan must understand that "there are no free lunches". Earlier Chinese goods had to travel from Middle East to China via Indian Ocean. Now they can dump the products at Gwadar port and transport it directly to China western part. Thus a lot of time and money will be saved for China and they will also get a market in entire length of Pakistan because CPEC covers entire Pakistan.

China-Pakistan angle

Indira Gandhi once said that she could visualise a time in the future when India and Pakistan would have normal and friendly relations, but she did not hope the same for China because she said that China is essentially an expansionist power.

China's backing to Pakistan interferes a lot in India Pakistan relations. Else Pakistan would not have run into arms race. Narendra Modi gave a speech that if we have to compete then we should compete in eradicating povery and lets see who comes first.

Pakistan is trying to get all the mileage from China. Its like putting all the eggs in one basket. Recently Pakistan has also adopted Mandarin as one of their official languages. But Chinese don't see Pakistani people in a very friendly manner. China also sees Pakistan as an exporter of terrorism in their western province of Xinxiang.

Final Analysis

Religious extremism and terrorism is being used as an instrument of State policy. So back channel diplomacy needs to be done by India. We cannot and should not ignore our neighbour. There are too many stakeholders in Pakistan. Thus our diplomacy needs to involve Pakistan Army, their political class and their business class as well. We should not let this issues hamper the trade between the two countries because it will hurt the common people from both the sides. Best example is China and USA who never let their trade get affected even in times of worst of relations.

Now we must understand that the two-nation theory has completely failed. It was advocated by people like Jinnah, V.D. Savarkar etc. It is not necessary that people of one religion can always live together in peace. Best example is Pakistan and Bangladesh division in 1971.

We understand that Pakistan feels insecure as India is a big country. The rivers come through India. They have lost wars against us. Our good relation with Afghanistan also makes them feel insecure. But India must make them understand that Afghanistan's stability and peace is important for Pakistan as well, and India is working in this perspective.
Hating entire Pakistan or entire India would not do good to anyone. We must understand that even country like USA has a section of population which hates India or Pakistan. Besides, it is the Pakistan government, officials, communal elements, religious extremists, terrorists who are responsible for all this mess. Soldiers die on both the sides. Whether India or Pakistan, a common man only wants peace. A new born baby only wants to be fed. An educated unemployed only wants a peaceful job. A good number of people from both the sides do not want to fight and only desire peace. They don't care if we have Siachen or not. Dr. Manmohan Singh once suggested to demilitarise Siachen and  convert it into a strategic park for research and educational purposes under the joint control of both the nations. We need these kind of peaceful solutions. So if we stop coming under the influence of such hate elements, then the peace between India and Pakistan will not be far ahead.